Krueger J, Clement R W
Department of Psychology, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912.
J Pers Soc Psychol. 1994 Oct;67(4):596-610. doi: 10.1037//0022-3514.67.4.596.
Consensus bias is the overuse of self-related knowledge in estimating the prevalence of attributes in a population. The bias seems statistically appropriate (Dawes, 1989), but according to the egocentrism hypothesis, it merely mimics normative inductive reasoning. In Experiment 1, Ss made population estimates for agreement with each of 40 personality inventory statements. Even Ss who had been educated about the consensus bias, or had received feedback about actual consensus, or both showed the bias. In Experiment 2, Ss attributed bias to another person, but their own consensus estimates were more affected by their own response to the item than by the other person's response. In Experiment 3, there was bias even in the presence of unanimous information from 20 randomly chosen others. In all 3 experiments, Ss continued to show consensus bias despite the availability of other statistical information.
共识偏差是指在估计总体中属性的流行程度时过度使用与自我相关的知识。这种偏差在统计学上似乎是合理的（道斯，1989），但根据自我中心主义假说，它只是模仿了规范性归纳推理。在实验1中，被试对40条人格量表陈述中的每一条的认同程度进行总体估计。即使是那些已经了解共识偏差、或收到关于实际共识的反馈、或两者都有的被试，也表现出了这种偏差。在实验2中，被试将偏差归因于另一个人，但他们自己的共识估计更多地受到自己对项目的回答的影响，而不是另一个人的回答的影响。在实验3中，即使有来自20个随机选择的其他人的一致信息，仍然存在偏差。在所有这3个实验中，尽管有其他统计信息可用，被试仍然表现出共识偏差。
