Chan M S, Guyatt H L, Bundy D A, Medley G F
WHO Collaborating Centre for the Epidemiology of Intestinal Parasitic Infections, Department of Biology, Imperial College, London, UK.
Parasitology. 1994 Sep;109 ( Pt 3):389-96. doi: 10.1017/s0031182000078422.
Epidemiological modelling can be a useful tool for the evaluation of parasite control strategies. An age-structured epidemiological model of intestinal helminth dynamics is developed. This model includes the explicit representation of changing worm distributions between hosts as a result of treatment, and estimates the morbidity due to heavy infections. The model is used to evaluate the effectiveness of different programmes of age-targeted community chemotherapy in reducing the amount of morbidity due to helminth infection. The magnitude of age-related heterogeneities is found to be very important in determining the results of age-targeted treatment programmes. The model was verified using field data from control programmes for Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura, and was found to provide accurate predictions of prevalence and mean intensities of infection during and following different control regimes.
流行病学建模可以成为评估寄生虫控制策略的有用工具。本文构建了一个肠道蠕虫动态的年龄结构流行病学模型。该模型明确表示了因治疗导致宿主间蠕虫分布的变化，并估算了重度感染导致的发病率。该模型用于评估不同的年龄针对性社区化疗方案在降低蠕虫感染所致发病量方面的有效性。研究发现，年龄相关异质性的程度在确定年龄针对性治疗方案的结果时非常重要。该模型使用来自蛔虫和鞭虫控制项目的现场数据进行了验证，结果表明该模型能够准确预测不同控制措施实施期间及之后的感染率和平均感染强度。
