Finley B, Proctor D, Scott P, Harrington N, Paustenbach D, Price P
ChemRisk, Division of McLaren/Hart Environmental Engineering, Alameda, California 94501.
Risk Anal. 1994 Aug;14(4):533-53. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00269.x.
Although there has been nearly complete agreement in the scientific community that Monte Carlo techniques represent a significant improvement in the exposure assessment process, virtually all state and federal risk assessments still rely on the traditional point estimate approach. One of the rate-determining steps to a timely implementation of Monte Carlo techniques to regulatory decision making is the development of "standard" data distributions that are considered applicable to any setting. For many exposure variables, there is no need to wait any longer to adopt Monte Carlo techniques into regulatory policy since there is a wealth of data from which a robust distribution can be developed and ample evidence to indicate that the variable is not significantly influenced by site-specific conditions. In this paper, we propose several distributions that can be considered standard and customary for most settings. Age-specific distributions for soil ingestion rates, inhalation rates, body weights, skin surface area, tapwater and fish consumption, residential occupancy and occupational tenure, and soil-on-skin adherence were developed. For each distribution offered in this paper, we discuss the adequacy of the database, derivation of the distribution, and applicability of the distribution to various settings and conditions.
尽管科学界几乎已达成完全共识,即蒙特卡洛技术在暴露评估过程中代表了重大改进,但几乎所有州和联邦的风险评估仍依赖传统的点估计方法。及时将蒙特卡洛技术应用于监管决策的一个决定性步骤是开发被认为适用于任何情况的“标准”数据分布。对于许多暴露变量而言,无需再等待将蒙特卡洛技术纳入监管政策,因为有大量数据可用于开发稳健的分布,并且有充分证据表明该变量不受特定场地条件的显著影响。在本文中,我们提出了几种可被视为大多数情况下标准和惯例的分布。开发了按年龄划分的土壤摄入量、吸入率身体重量、皮肤表面积、自来水和鱼类消费量、居住占用率和职业任期以及皮肤与土壤粘附率的分布。对于本文提供的每种分布,我们讨论了数据库的充分性、分布的推导以及该分布在各种情况和条件下的适用性。