荷兰两种风寒指数与每日死亡率变化之间的关联。
The association between two windchill indices and daily mortality variation in The Netherlands.
作者信息
Kunst A E, Groenhof F, Mackenbach J P
机构信息
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 1994 Nov;84(11):1738-42. doi: 10.2105/ajph.84.11.1738.
OBJECTIVES
The purpose of this study was to compare temperature and two windchill indices with respect to the strength of their association with daily variation in mortality in the Netherlands during 1979 to 1987. The two windchill indices were those developed by Siple and Passel and by Steadman.
METHODS
Daily numbers of cause-specific deaths were related to the meteorological variables by means of Poisson regression with control for influenza incidence. Lag times were taken into account.
RESULTS
Daily variation in mortality, especially mortality from heart disease, was more strongly related to the Steadman windchill index than to temperature or the Siple and Passel index (34.9%, 31.2%, and 31.5%, respectively, of mortality variation explained). The strongest relation was found with daytime values of the Steadman index.
CONCLUSIONS
In areas where spells of cold are frequently accompanied by strong wind, the use of the Steadman index probably adds much to the identification of weather conditions involving an increased risk of death. The results of this study provide no justification for the wide-spread use (e.g., in the United States) of the Siple and Passel index.
目的
本研究旨在比较温度和两种风寒指数与1979年至1987年荷兰每日死亡率变化之间关联的强度。这两种风寒指数分别是由西普尔和帕塞尔以及斯特德曼编制的。
方法
通过泊松回归将特定病因的每日死亡人数与气象变量相关联，并对流感发病率进行控制。考虑了滞后时间。
结果
死亡率的每日变化，尤其是心脏病死亡率，与斯特德曼风寒指数的相关性比与温度或西普尔和帕塞尔指数的相关性更强（分别解释了死亡率变化的34.9%、31.2%和31.5%）。与斯特德曼指数的日间值的相关性最强。
结论
在寒冷天气经常伴有强风的地区，使用斯特德曼指数可能对识别涉及死亡风险增加的天气状况有很大帮助。本研究结果无法为西普尔和帕塞尔指数在美国等地区的广泛使用提供依据。
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