Kendrovski Vladimir T
Department for Hygiene and Environmental Health, Medical Faculty, University St. Cyril and Methodius, 50 Divizija 6, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia.
BMC Public Health. 2006 Feb 23;6:44. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-6-44.
This study assesses the relationship between daily numbers of deaths and variations in ambient temperature within the city of Skopje, R. Macedonia.
The daily number of deaths from all causes, during the period 1996-2000, as well as those deaths from cardiovascular diseases, occurring within the city of Skopje were related to the average daily temperature on the same day using Multiple Regression statistical analyses. Temperature was measured within the regression model as two complementary variables: 'Warm' and 'Cold'. Excess winter mortality was calculated as winter deaths (deaths occurring in December to March) minus the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year).
In this study the average daily total of deaths was 7% and 13% greater in the cold when compared to the whole period and warm period respectively. The same relationship was noticed for deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. The Regression Beta Coefficient (b = -0.19) for the total mortality as a function of the temperature in Skopje during the period 1996-2000 was statistically significant with negative connotation as was the circulatory mortality due to average temperature (statistically significant regression Beta coefficient (b = -0.24)). A measure of this increase is provided, on an annual basis, in the form of the excess winter mortality figure.
Mortality with in the city of Skopje displayed a marked seasonality, with peaks in the winter and relative troughs in the summer.
本研究评估了马其顿共和国斯科普里市每日死亡人数与环境温度变化之间的关系。
采用多元回归统计分析方法，将1996 - 2000年期间斯科普里市所有原因导致的每日死亡人数以及心血管疾病导致的死亡人数与当日平均气温相关联。在回归模型中，温度被测量为两个互补变量：“温暖”和“寒冷”。冬季超额死亡率的计算方法为冬季死亡人数（12月至次年3月发生的死亡）减去非冬季死亡人数的平均值（当年4月至7月以及上一年8月至11月）。
在本研究中，寒冷时期的每日平均总死亡人数分别比整个时期和温暖时期高出7%和13%。心血管疾病导致的死亡也呈现出相同的关系。1996 - 2000年期间，斯科普里市总死亡率作为温度函数的回归β系数（b = -0.19）具有统计学意义且为负向关联，平均温度导致的循环系统死亡率也是如此（具有统计学意义的回归β系数（b = -0.24））。以冬季超额死亡率数字的形式，每年提供了这种增加的一个衡量指标。
斯科普里市的死亡率呈现出明显的季节性，冬季达到峰值，夏季相对较低。
