Xu X, Gao J, Dockery D W, Chen Y
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Arch Environ Health. 1994 Jul-Aug;49(4):216-22. doi: 10.1080/00039896.1994.9937470.
The relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in 1989 was examined in two residential areas in Beijing, China. Very high concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) (mean = 102 micrograms/m3, maximum = 630 micrograms/m3) and total suspended particulates (TSPs) (mean = 375 micrograms/m3, maximum = 1,003 micrograms/m3) were observed in these areas. Daily counts of deaths were regressed, using Poisson regression on the logarithm of (SO2) and/or TSPs controlling for effects of temperature, humidity, and day of week. A highly significant association was found between In(SO2) and daily mortality. The risk of total mortality was estimated to increase by 11% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 5%-16%) with each doubling in SO2 concentration. Separately, the association of In(TSP) with total daily mortality was positive but not significant (4% increase in mortality with each doubling in TSP; 95% CI = -2%-11%). When mortality was analyzed separately by cause, the association with a doubling in SO2 was significant for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (29%), pulmonary heart disease (19%), and cardiovascular disease (11%), and marginally significant for the other nonmalignant causes (8%), but not statistically significant for cancer (2%). A similar association was noted for a doubling in TSP (4%, 38%, and 8% for total, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pulmonary heart disease mortality, respectively), but the result was only statistically significant for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In the season-specific analysis, both SO2 and TSP were found to be significant predictors of total daily mortality in summer. In winter, SO2 was again significantly associated with increased mortality, but no positive association was found between TSP and mortality.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
1989年，在中国北京的两个居民区对空气污染与每日死亡率之间的关系进行了研究。在这些区域观察到二氧化硫（SO₂）的浓度非常高（均值 = 102微克/立方米，最大值 = 630微克/立方米）以及总悬浮颗粒物（TSP）的浓度也很高（均值 = 375微克/立方米，最大值 = 1003微克/立方米）。使用泊松回归对（SO₂）和/或TSP的对数进行分析，同时控制温度、湿度和星期几的影响，对每日死亡人数进行回归分析。发现ln(SO₂)与每日死亡率之间存在高度显著的关联。随着SO₂浓度每增加一倍，总死亡率风险估计增加11%（95%置信区间[95%CI]=5%-16%）。单独来看，ln(TSP)与每日总死亡率的关联为正，但不显著（TSP每增加一倍，死亡率增加4%；95%CI = -2%-11%）。当按病因分别分析死亡率时，SO₂浓度增加一倍与慢性阻塞性肺疾病（29%）、肺心病（19%）和心血管疾病（11%）的关联显著，与其他非恶性病因的关联接近显著（8%），但与癌症的关联无统计学意义（2%）。TSP增加一倍也有类似关联（总死亡率、慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率和肺心病死亡率分别为4%、38%和8%），但结果仅在慢性阻塞性肺疾病方面有统计学意义。在按季节分析中，发现SO₂和TSP在夏季都是每日总死亡率的显著预测因素。在冬季，SO₂再次与死亡率增加显著相关，但未发现TSP与死亡率之间有正相关。（摘要截选至250字）
