McNeil B J, Keller E, Adelstein S J
N Engl J Med. 1975 Jul 31;293(5):211-5. doi: 10.1056/NEJM197507312930501.
The value of a diagnostic test lies in its ability to detect patients with disease (its sensitivity) and to exclude patients without disease (its specificity). For tests with binary outcomes, these measures are fixed. For tests with a continuous scale of values, various cutoff points can be selected to adjust the sensitivity and specificity of the test to conform with the physician's goals. Principles of statistical decision theory and information theory suggest technics for objectively determining these cutoff points, depending upon whether the physician is concerned with health costs, with financial costs, or with the information content of the test.
诊断测试的价值在于其检测患病患者的能力(即灵敏度)以及排除未患病患者的能力(即特异度)。对于具有二元结果的测试,这些指标是固定的。对于具有连续数值范围的测试,可以选择各种临界值来调整测试的灵敏度和特异度,以符合医生的目标。统计决策理论和信息理论的原理提出了客观确定这些临界值的技术,这取决于医生关注的是健康成本、财务成本还是测试的信息内容。