Ruffman T, Perner J, Olson D R, Doherty M
Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Sussex at Brighton, Falmer, UK.
Child Dev. 1993 Dec;64(6):1617-36.
3 experiments were carried out to examine children's understanding of the role of covariation evidence in hypothesis formation. Previous research suggested that it is not until 8 to 11 years of age that children begin to understand how a given pattern of covariation supports a particular hypothesis about which factor is causally responsible for an observed effect. Experiments 1 to 3 employed a different (fake evidence) technique than previous research and showed that by 6 years of age most children understand how evidence would lead a story character to form a different hypothesis than the subject's own. Experiment 3 showed that most 6- and young 7-year-olds understand how a character's future actions (e.g., choice of an object) and predictions of future outcomes depend on the hypothesis he or she holds.
进行了3项实验，以检验儿童对协变证据在假设形成中所起作用的理解。先前的研究表明，直到8至11岁，儿童才开始理解给定的协变模式如何支持关于哪个因素对观察到的效应负有因果责任的特定假设。实验1至3采用了与先前研究不同的（虚假证据）技术，结果表明，到6岁时，大多数儿童都理解证据如何使故事中的角色形成与受试者自己不同的假设。实验3表明，大多数6岁和7岁的儿童都理解一个角色的未来行动（例如，选择一个物体）以及对未来结果的预测如何取决于他或她所持有的假设。
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