Tsuji I, Minami Y, Keyl P M, Hisamichi S, Asano H, Sato M, Shinoda K
Department of Public Health, Tohoku University School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
J Am Geriatr Soc. 1994 Feb;42(2):153-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.1994.tb04944.x.
To examine the predictive power of self-rated health, activities of daily living (ADL), and ambulatory activity for different causes of death in a representative sample of older persons.
Three-year prospective cohort study.
Sendai City, Japan.
2,552 persons 65 years and older at baseline in 1988.
Independent variables (measured by self-report of participants) were age, sex, self-rated health, ADL, ambulatory activity level, and use of medical care. Dependent variables were mortalities from cancer, stroke, and heart disease.
Self-rated health significantly predicted cancer mortality but not the other two causes of mortality. ADL disability was a significant predictor for stroke mortality, and limitation in ambulatory activity significantly increased the risk of heart disease mortality. The associations between ADL and stroke mortality as well as between ambulatory activity and heart disease mortality remained significant even after excluding those who reported having the index disease in 1988.
The predictive powers of self-rated health, ADL function, and ambulatory activity varied significantly with the underlying causes of death among the elderly.
在一个具有代表性的老年样本中，研究自评健康状况、日常生活活动能力（ADL）和步行活动对不同死因的预测能力。
为期三年的前瞻性队列研究。
日本仙台市。
1988年基线时年龄在65岁及以上的2552人。
自变量（通过参与者自我报告测量）包括年龄、性别、自评健康状况、ADL、步行活动水平和医疗保健使用情况。因变量是癌症、中风和心脏病导致的死亡率。
自评健康状况显著预测癌症死亡率，但对其他两种死因无显著预测作用。ADL残疾是中风死亡率的显著预测因素，步行活动受限显著增加心脏病死亡率风险。即使排除1988年报告患有指标疾病的人群后，ADL与中风死亡率之间以及步行活动与心脏病死亡率之间的关联仍然显著。
自评健康状况、ADL功能和步行活动的预测能力在老年人不同死因中存在显著差异。
