Balding D J, Nichols R A
School of Mathematical Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London, UK.
Forensic Sci Int. 1994 Feb;64(2-3):125-40. doi: 10.1016/0379-0738(94)90222-4.
In DNA profile analysis, uncertainty arises due to a number of factors such as sampling error, single bands and correlations within and between loci. One of the most important of these factors is kinship: criminal and innocent suspect may share one or more bands through identity by descent from a common ancestor. Ignoring this uncertainty is consistently unfair to innocent suspects. The effect is usually small, but may be important in some cases. The report of the US National Research Committee proposed a complicated, ad-hoc and overly-conservative method of dealing with some of these problems. We propose an alternative approach which addresses directly the effect of kinship. Whilst remaining conservative, it is simple, logically coherent and makes efficient use of the data.
在DNA图谱分析中，由于多种因素会产生不确定性，如采样误差、单一条带以及基因座内部和之间的相关性。其中最重要的因素之一是亲属关系：犯罪嫌疑人与无辜嫌疑人可能通过来自共同祖先的同源性而共享一条或多条条带。忽视这种不确定性对无辜嫌疑人始终是不公平的。这种影响通常较小，但在某些情况下可能很重要。美国国家研究委员会的报告提出了一种复杂、临时且过于保守的方法来处理其中一些问题。我们提出了一种替代方法，该方法直接解决了亲属关系的影响。虽然仍然保守，但它简单、逻辑连贯且能有效利用数据。
