Nikolov I N
Department of Social Medicine, University of Medicine, Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
Folia Med (Plovdiv). 1993;35(1-2):76-80.
Using a concise method, we estimated the effect of mortality in specific age groups on the average life expectancy in Bulgaria. The method enables the calculation of the index from all causes of death as well as hypothetically, eliminating the mortality of the age groups involved in the study: under 1 year of age, 1 to 14-year-olds, 15 to 59-year-olds, and 60-year-olds and over 60. The detailed dynamic analysis of the influence of these four age groups mortality showed that the decrease in child mortality influenced positively the average life expectancy making it rise. This was especially clearly seen in the period until the mid-1960s. In the late 1960s the influence of the child mortality became insignificant and the major reserve for increasing the average life expectancy remained the decrease in active-life mortality.
我们采用一种简洁的方法,估算了保加利亚特定年龄组死亡率对平均预期寿命的影响。该方法能够计算所有死因的指数,并且假设消除参与研究的年龄组的死亡率:1岁以下、1至14岁、15至59岁以及60岁及以上。对这四个年龄组死亡率影响的详细动态分析表明,儿童死亡率的下降对平均预期寿命产生了积极影响,使其上升。这在20世纪60年代中期之前的时期尤为明显。在20世纪60年代后期,儿童死亡率的影响变得微不足道,提高平均预期寿命的主要储备仍然是降低活跃期死亡率。