Homel R
School of Justice Administration, Griffith University, Qld., Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 1994 Apr;26(2):147-55. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(94)90084-1.
This paper reports the results of a preliminary analysis of daily fatal crashes in New South Wales, Australia, between July 1975 and December 1986. The analysis unexpectedly uncovered a small but statistically significant decline in crashes coinciding with the introduction of a law lowering the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) from .08 to .05 g%. The original aim of the analysis was to develop for a larger study appropriate log-linear techniques to assess the impact of a range of government initiatives, including laws aimed at the drinking driver: increased penalties, the .05 law, and random breath testing (RBT). The analysis showed that RBT immediately reduced fatal crashes by 19.5% overall and by 30% during holiday periods, and that the .05 law, introduced two years before RBT, apparently reduced fatal crashes by 13% on Saturdays. There was no significant effect of the .05 law on any other day of the week, and there was no clear evidence that any other initiative had a statistically significant effect on accidents. Although the apparent impact of the .05 law was small, it is surprising that any effect was discernible, since the law was not extensively advertised and police enforcement was no more intense than is usual over Christmas. However, any effects of the .05 law may not have been sustained if RBT had not been introduced two years later.
本文报告了对1975年7月至1986年12月期间澳大利亚新南威尔士州每日致命车祸进行初步分析的结果。分析意外发现，随着一项将法定血液酒精浓度（BAC）从0.08降至0.05克%的法律出台，车祸数量出现了小幅但具有统计学意义的下降。该分析的最初目的是为一项更大规模的研究开发合适的对数线性技术，以评估一系列政府举措的影响，包括针对酒后驾车者的法律：加重处罚、0.05法律以及随机呼气测试（RBT）。分析表明，随机呼气测试立即使致命车祸总数下降了19.5%，在节假日期间下降了30%，而在随机呼气测试实施两年前出台的0.05法律，在周六显然使致命车祸减少了13%。0.05法律在一周中的其他任何一天都没有显著影响，而且没有明确证据表明任何其他举措对事故有统计学意义上的显著影响。尽管0.05法律的明显影响较小，但令人惊讶的是仍能看出有任何影响，因为该法律没有广泛宣传，而且警方在圣诞节期间的执法力度也没有比平时更强。然而，如果两年后没有引入随机呼气测试，0.05法律的任何影响可能无法持续。
