Kalkstein L S, Smoyer K E
Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark 19716.
Experientia. 1993 Nov 15;49(11):969-79. doi: 10.1007/BF02125644.
The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful.
本研究的目的是探讨全球变暖对人类健康各个方面的潜在影响。估计了四个国家与高温相关的死亡率变化：美国、加拿大、中华人民共和国和埃及。此外，还考虑了空气污染增加带来的潜在混杂影响。最后，讨论了一个分析两种媒介传播疾病（盘尾丝虫病和疟疾）的框架，这两种疾病可能会随着气温升高而传播。我们的研究结果表明，如果地球变暖，估计这四个国家与高温相关的死亡率都会显著上升，对中国和埃及的影响最大。最敏感的地区是那些出现强烈但不规则热浪的地区。在美国，当出现恶劣天气时，空气污染似乎对每日死亡率没有显著影响，尽管在天气状况不恶劣时似乎有轻微影响。
