Bairagi R, Koenig M A, Mazumder K A
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka.
Am J Epidemiol. 1993 Sep 1;138(5):310-7. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116860.
This study compared the predictive power of selected nutritional (anthropometric), socioeconomic, and diarrheal disease morbidity variables for subsequent childhood mortality over a 1-year period. The data consisted of observations of approximately 1,900 children aged 6-36 months obtained from a longitudinal demographic surveillance system located in a rural area of Bangladesh in 1988-1990. The results suggested that weight-for-age (%) was the best predictor of subsequent mortality over a 1-year period, followed by weight velocity (monthly weight gain or loss in grams). Standardization of weight velocity by the US National Center for Health Statistics standard did not improve the mortality-discriminating power of this variable. Reported diarrheal morbidity was also a useful criterion for predicting mortality. Neither maternal education nor sex of the child had significant mortality-discriminating power.
本研究比较了选定的营养(人体测量)、社会经济和腹泻病发病率变量对随后1年儿童死亡率的预测能力。数据来自1988 - 1990年在孟加拉国农村地区的一个纵向人口监测系统中对约1900名6 - 36个月大儿童的观察。结果表明,年龄别体重(%)是随后1年死亡率的最佳预测指标,其次是体重增长速度(每月体重增加或减少的克数)。根据美国国家卫生统计中心的标准对体重增长速度进行标准化并没有提高该变量对死亡率的区分能力。报告的腹泻发病率也是预测死亡率的一个有用标准。母亲的教育程度和孩子的性别都没有显著的死亡率区分能力。