The forensic significance of various reference population databases for estimating the rarity of variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) loci profiles.

The likelihood of occurrence of 1,964-HaeIII-generated target DNA profiles was estimated using fixed bin VNTR frequencies from various Caucasian, Black, and Hispanic databases and the product rule. The data in this study demonstrate that for forensic purposes there are smaller differences in statistical estimates of DNA profile frequencies among subgroup databases than among estimates across major population databases. This observation does not support the premise asserted by the NCR Report (1992) that the differences among subgroups within a race would be greater than between races (at least for forensic purposes). Therefore, the data do not support the need for alternative procedures, such as the ceiling principle approach (NRC Reports, 1992), for deriving statistical estimates of DNA profile frequencies. Comparisons across major population groups provide reasonable, reliable, and meaningful estimates of DNA profile frequencies without forensically significant consequences.