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Br Heart J. 1993 Jan;69(1):83-92. doi: 10.1136/hrt.69.1.83.
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Handling uncertainty in cost-effectiveness models.处理成本效益模型中的不确定性。
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本文引用的文献

1
Termination of malignant ventricular arrhythmias with an implanted automatic defibrillator in human beings.植入式自动除颤器终止人类恶性室性心律失常。
N Engl J Med. 1980 Aug 7;303(6):322-4. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198008073030607.
2
Prehospital defibrillation performed by emergency medical technicians in rural communities.农村社区急救医疗技术人员进行的院前除颤。
N Engl J Med. 1984 Jan 26;310(4):219-23. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198401263100403.
3
Factors influencing survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.影响院外心脏骤停后生存率的因素。
J Am Coll Cardiol. 1986 Apr;7(4):752-7. doi: 10.1016/s0735-1097(86)80332-1.
4
Prognostic significance of ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation induced at programmed stimulation and delayed potentials detected on the signal-averaged electrocardiograms of survivors of acute myocardial infarction.急性心肌梗死幸存者程控刺激诱发的室性心动过速和心室颤动以及信号平均心电图检测到的延迟电位的预后意义。
Circulation. 1986 Oct;74(4):731-45. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.74.4.731.
5
The automatic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator in drug-refractory ventricular tachyarrhythmias.植入式自动心脏复律除颤器用于药物难治性室性快速性心律失常。
Ann Intern Med. 1987 Nov;107(5):635-41. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-107-5-635.
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A new noninvasive index to predict sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden death in the first year after myocardial infarction: based on signal-averaged electrocardiogram, radionuclide ejection fraction and Holter monitoring.
J Am Coll Cardiol. 1987 Aug;10(2):349-57. doi: 10.1016/s0735-1097(87)80018-9.
7
Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Use of electrophysiologic testing in the prediction of long-term outcome.院外心脏骤停。电生理检查在长期预后预测中的应用。
N Engl J Med. 1988 Jan 7;318(1):19-24. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198801073180105.
8
Poor survival of patients with idiopathic cardiomyopathy considered too well for transplantation.对于特发性心肌病患者而言,若被认为身体状况过于良好而不适合进行移植,则其生存率较低。
Am J Med. 1987 Nov;83(5):871-6. doi: 10.1016/0002-9343(87)90644-9.
9
Measuring the effectiveness of heart transplant programmes: quality of life data and their relationship to survival analysis.
J Chronic Dis. 1987;40 Suppl 1:137S-158S. doi: 10.1016/s0021-9681(87)80043-7.
10
Should asymptomatic ventricular arrhythmias in patients with congestive heart failure be treated with antiarrhythmic drugs?充血性心力衰竭患者的无症状室性心律失常是否应用抗心律失常药物治疗?
J Am Coll Cardiol. 1988 Jul;12(1):274-83. doi: 10.1016/0735-1097(88)90388-9.

使用简单成本效益模型对植入式心脏复律除颤器当前及未来应用的启示。

Implications for present and future applications of the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator resulting from the use of a simple model of cost efficacy.

作者信息

Anderson M H, Camm A J

机构信息

St George's Hospital Medical School, London.

出版信息

Br Heart J. 1993 Jan;69(1):83-92. doi: 10.1136/hrt.69.1.83.

DOI:10.1136/hrt.69.1.83
PMID:8457402
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1024924/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model to assess the cost-efficacy of the implantable cardioverter defibrillator to prevent sudden death. The model must be sufficiently flexible to allow the use of cost and survival figures derived from different sources.

SETTING

The study was conducted in a teaching hospital department of cardiology with experience of 40 implantable cardioverter defibrillator implants and a large database of over 500 survivors of myocardial infarction.

PROCEDURE

The basic costs of screening tests, stay in hospital, and purchase of implantable cardioverter defibrillators were derived from St George's Hospital during 1991. To assess the cost-efficacy of various strategies for the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators, survival data taken from published studies or from our own database. Implications of the national cost of the various strategies were calculated by estimating the number of patients a year requiring implantation of a defibrillator if the strategy was adopted.

RESULTS

Use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators in survivors of cardiac arrest costs between 22,400 pounds and 57,000 pounds for each year of life saved. Most of the strategies proposed by the current generation of implantable cardioverter defibrillator trials have cost efficacies in the same range, and adoption of any one of these strategies in the United Kingdom could cost between 2 million pounds and 100 million pounds a year. Future technical and medical developments mean that cost-efficacy may be improved by up to 80%. Due to the limitations of screening tests currently available restriction on the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators to those groups where it seems highly cost-effective will result in a small impact on overall mortality from sudden cardiac death.

CONCLUSION

Present and possible future applications of the implantable cardioverter defibrillator seem expensive when compared with currently accepted treatments. Technical and medical developments are, however, likely to result in a dramatic improvement in cost efficacy over the next few years.

摘要

目的

建立一个模型来评估植入式心脏复律除颤器预防猝死的成本效益。该模型必须足够灵活,以允许使用来自不同来源的成本和生存数据。

背景

该研究在一家教学医院的心脏病科进行,该科室有40例植入式心脏复律除颤器植入经验,并有一个超过500名心肌梗死幸存者的大型数据库。

方法

筛查试验、住院和购买植入式心脏复律除颤器的基本成本来自1991年的圣乔治医院。为了评估使用植入式心脏复律除颤器的各种策略的成本效益,生存数据取自已发表的研究或我们自己的数据库。通过估计如果采用该策略每年需要植入除颤器的患者数量,计算各种策略的国家成本影响。

结果

在心脏骤停幸存者中使用植入式心脏复律除颤器,每挽救一年生命的成本在22400英镑至57000英镑之间。当前一代植入式心脏复律除颤器试验提出的大多数策略的成本效益都在同一范围内,在英国采用这些策略中的任何一种每年可能花费200万英镑至1亿英镑。未来的技术和医学发展意味着成本效益可能提高多达80%。由于目前可用筛查试验的局限性,将植入式心脏复律除颤器的使用限制在那些似乎具有高成本效益的人群中,对心脏性猝死的总体死亡率影响较小。

结论

与目前公认的治疗方法相比,植入式心脏复律除颤器目前及未来可能的应用似乎成本高昂。然而,技术和医学发展可能会在未来几年导致成本效益的显著提高。