Paffenbarger R S, Hale W E, Brand R J, Hyde R T
Am J Epidemiol. 1977 Mar;105(3):200-13. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112376.
In a 22-year followup of 3686 San Francisco longshoremen, a cohort analysis assessed job activity and six personal characteristics in relation to 395 fatal heart attacks. Four cohorts aged 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 in 1951 were studied annually for job shifts affecting energy output and for sudden or delayed death from heart attack by age 75. All subjects underwent multiphasic screening for heavy cigarette smoking, higher blood pressure, history of prior heart disease, obesity, abnormal glucose metabolism, and higher blood cholesterol. The first three of these characteristics added risk of fatal heart attack. The amount of risk varied in the four cohorts. Higher energy output on the job reduced risk of fatal heart attack, especially sudden death, in the two younger cohorts, where less active workers were at threefold increased risk. Lack of this effect in the two older cohorts could imply real differences in their work habits, such as being less energetic in heavy jobs or more energetic in light jobs than the younger cohorts. Or, before the study began, early deaths may have winnowed susceptibles from the two older cohorts. Combined low-energy output, heavy smoking, and higher blood pressure increased risk by as much as 20-fold. By elimination of these adverse influences, this population might have had an 88% reduction in its rate of fatal heart attack during the 22 years.
在对3686名旧金山码头工人进行的22年随访中,一项队列分析评估了与395例致命性心脏病发作相关的工作活动和六项个人特征。对1951年年龄在35 - 44岁、45 - 54岁、55 - 64岁和65 - 74岁的四个队列进行了年度研究,观察影响能量输出的工作轮班情况以及到75岁时因心脏病发作导致的猝死或延迟死亡情况。所有受试者都接受了多项筛查,以检测重度吸烟、高血压、既往心脏病史、肥胖、葡萄糖代谢异常和高胆固醇血症。前三项特征增加了致命性心脏病发作的风险。这四项特征的风险程度各不相同。工作中较高的能量输出降低了致命性心脏病发作的风险,尤其是在两个较年轻的队列中猝死的风险,在这两个队列中,工作不太活跃的工人风险增加了两倍。在两个较年长的队列中缺乏这种效应可能意味着他们的工作习惯存在真正的差异,比如与较年轻的队列相比,从事重体力工作时精力较少,或者从事轻体力工作时精力更充沛。或者,在研究开始之前,早期死亡可能已经从两个较年长的队列中剔除了易感人群。低能量输出、重度吸烟和高血压共同作用使风险增加了多达20倍。通过消除这些不利影响,这个人群在22年期间的致命性心脏病发作率可能会降低88%。