Nicas M
Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720, USA.
Am Ind Hyg Assoc J. 1996 Jan;57(1):16-22. doi: 10.1080/15428119691015179.
The traditional Poisson probability model for airborne Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection, also termed the Wells-Riley equation, can be modified to account for a health care worker's use of respiratory protection. It was previously shown that the beta distribution on the interval [0,1] is a good descriptor of respirator penetration values experienced by an individual worker from wearing to wearing, and of average respirator penetration values experienced by different workers. Based on the premise that the gamma distribution can reasonably describe the time-varying M.tb aerosol exposure levels experienced by health care workers, analytical solutions are presented for an individual worker's cumulative risk of infection, and for the worker population mean cumulative risk of infection, with and without use of respiratory protection. The gamma distribution is shown to be similar to the lognormal in describing right-skewed distributions of aerosol exposure concentrations on the interval [0, infinity).
用于空气传播的结核分枝杆菌（M.tb）感染的传统泊松概率模型，也称为韦尔斯-莱利方程，可以进行修改以考虑医护人员对呼吸防护设备的使用情况。先前的研究表明，区间[0,1]上的贝塔分布能够很好地描述个体工人每次佩戴呼吸防护设备时的穿透率值，以及不同工人的平均呼吸防护设备穿透率值。基于伽马分布能够合理描述医护人员随时间变化的结核分枝杆菌气溶胶暴露水平这一前提，给出了使用和不使用呼吸防护设备时个体工人累积感染风险以及工人群体平均累积感染风险的解析解。结果表明，在描述区间[0, +∞）上气溶胶暴露浓度的右偏分布时，伽马分布与对数正态分布相似。
