McKenney J L, Lapane K L, Assaf A R, Carleton R A
Division of Health Education, Memorial Hospital of Rhode Island, Pawtucket 02860, USA.
Epidemiology. 1995 Nov;6(6):612-6. doi: 10.1097/00001648-199511000-00009.
We examined the association between self-rated risk of stroke or myocardial infarction and actual morbidity and mortality by gender among participants of the Pawtucket Heart Health Program Health Survey in a nested case-control study. We defined cases (N = 191) as survey participants who later had a cardiac event registered in the Pawtucket Heart Health Program cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality surveillance system. We matched controls (N = 573) on age, sex, date of survey, and city of residence. Women reporting a high perceived risk of stroke or myocardial infarction were four times as likely as women who indicated low perceived risk to have a future cardiovascular event [adjusted odds ratio = 4.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5-10.3]. Men who perceived their risk as average were twice as likely as those who rated their risk as low to have a future myocardial infarction or stroke (adjusted odds ratio = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.0-3.6), whereas those who perceived their risk as high were at only slightly higher risk of morbid or mortal events (adjusted odds ratio = 1.8; 95% CI = 0.9-3.9).
在一项巢式病例对照研究中，我们对参加波塔基特心脏健康项目健康调查的参与者，按性别研究了自评中风或心肌梗死风险与实际发病率和死亡率之间的关联。我们将病例（N = 191）定义为后来在波塔基特心脏健康项目心血管疾病发病率和死亡率监测系统中登记有心脏事件的调查参与者。我们按照年龄、性别、调查日期和居住城市对对照（N = 573）进行匹配。报告中风或心肌梗死感知风险高的女性发生未来心血管事件的可能性是报告低感知风险女性的四倍[调整优势比 = 4.0；95%置信区间（CI）= 1.5 - 10.3]。认为自己风险为中等的男性发生未来心肌梗死或中风的可能性是认为风险低的男性的两倍（调整优势比 = 1.9；95% CI = 1.0 - 3.6），而认为自己风险高的男性发生发病或死亡事件的风险仅略高（调整优势比 = 1.8；95% CI = 0.9 - 3.9）。
