Siddique A K, Akram K, Zaman K, Mutsuddy P, Eusof A, Sack R B
Epidemic Control Preparedness Programme, ICCDR, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Trop Med Int Health. 1996 Jun;1(3):393-8. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3156.1996.d01-54.x.
The emergence of the new strain Vibrio cholerae O139 and its rapid spread in Bangladesh and India together with its detection in several other countries, have raised the question whether this constitutes the beginning of the eighth pandemic of cholera, and if so, how large a threat it poses. In an attempt to answer this question, epidemic spread patterns of Vibrio cholerae O139 strain in Bangladesh were studied. Initially the epidemic moved quickly and affected the entire coastal and estuarine tidal plains of southern Bangladesh. In the flood plains of the northern regions it affected mostly the north-eastern and north-central areas, at a slower pace than in the southern areas. In the beginning the new strain totally displaced both biotypes (classic and El Tor) of Vibrio cholerae O1. Nearly 2 years after its initial detection, striking differences in the distribution of V. cholerae O139 and O1 were observed. In most northern areas, the new strain was replaced by V. cholerae O1, whereas in the southern coastal regions, the O139 strain continues to dominate epidemics. The study suggests that the O139 strain may become endemic in the coastal ecosystem. The threat of a pandemic, therefore, may not be as large as it first seemed.
新型霍乱弧菌O139菌株的出现及其在孟加拉国和印度的迅速传播，以及在其他几个国家的检出，引发了这样一个问题：这是否构成霍乱第八次大流行的开端？如果是，它构成的威胁有多大？为了回答这个问题，对孟加拉国霍乱弧菌O139菌株的流行传播模式进行了研究。最初，疫情迅速蔓延，影响了孟加拉国南部的整个沿海和河口潮汐平原。在北部地区的洪泛平原，它主要影响东北部和中北部地区，传播速度比南部地区慢。一开始，这种新菌株完全取代了霍乱弧菌O1的两种生物型（古典生物型和埃尔托生物型）。在首次检出近2年后，观察到霍乱弧菌O139和O1分布的显著差异。在大多数北部地区，新菌株被霍乱弧菌O1取代，而在南部沿海地区，O139菌株继续主导疫情。该研究表明，O139菌株可能会在沿海生态系统中成为地方病。因此，大流行的威胁可能没有最初看起来那么大。
