Intensive care unit admissions with cirrhosis: risk-stratifying patient groups and predicting individual survival.

Prognosis for acutely ill patients with cirrhosis is influenced by the severity of hepatic abnormalities and by dysfunction of other organ systems. The purpose of this study was to examine the usefulness of the Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE III) prognostic system for risk-stratifying groups of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with cirrhosis and in predicting individual survival. We used data for 17,440 ICU admissions at 40 American hospitals to select 117 of the 537 patients with a history of cirrhosis who were ventilated on ICU day 1, a group known to have a high mortality rate. We then calculated each patient's probability of hospital death on ICU days 1 through 7, using seven previously validated multivariate equations. Hospital mortality was 63% for the 117 study patients. The most important determinants of risk for hospital death on ICU day 1 were the acute physiology score of APACHE III, ICU admission diagnosis, and operative status. Daily changes in the acute physiology score caused a rise or fall in the probability of hospital mortality and was useful in assessing individual response to therapy. APACHE III accurately risk stratifies critically ill patients with cirrhosis because it accounts for many of the factors known to influence prognosis. This capability can be used to assess severity of illness and risk-stratify patients with cirrhosis during clinical trials. Daily prognostic estimates based on physiological changes over time reflect patient response and can help physicians to assess the incremental benefit of therapy.