Janower M L, Sunshine J H
Department of Radiology, St Vincent Hospital, Worcester, MA 01604, USA.
Radiology. 1996 Aug;200(2):545-9. doi: 10.1148/radiology.200.2.8685355.
In light of the growing concern that a large surplus of diagnostic radiologists is pending, the authors (a) reviewed the major projections of the surplus-shortage situation made during the past quarter century and (b) semiquantitatively analyzed factors widely expected to have a substantial effect on the future situation. Projections uniformly were seriously mistaken. Some factors expected to affect the future, such as the increasing percentage of women among radiologists, are foreseeable and have small effects. However, other factors, most notably new technology, cannot be predicted, although their effects may be very large. The authors conclude that the long-term future situation is not predictable. The authors also examined steps that might be taken to reduce the supply of radiologists if a large surplus were known to be pending and antitrust prohibitions against coordinated responses were eliminated. At first, there appear to be multiple actions possible that would reduce the number of graduates of residency programs while preserving, or even enhancing, quality and equity. Closer examination, however, shows that these actions are often conflicting, sometimes not actually desirable, and generally troubled by questions of effectiveness and feasibility of implementation. Thus, even with changes in the law, the authors find no ready solutions to a possible large oversupply of radiologists.
鉴于人们日益担忧即将出现大量诊断放射科医生过剩的情况，作者们（a）回顾了过去四分之一世纪对过剩-短缺情况的主要预测，以及（b）对普遍预期会对未来情况产生重大影响的因素进行了半定量分析。预测无一例外地严重有误。一些预计会影响未来的因素，比如放射科医生中女性比例的增加，是可预见的，但其影响较小。然而，其他因素，最显著的是新技术，尽管其影响可能非常大，但无法预测。作者们得出结论，长期的未来情况是不可预测的。作者们还研究了如果已知即将出现大量过剩情况且消除了对协调应对措施的反垄断禁令，可能会采取哪些措施来减少放射科医生的供应。起初，似乎有多种可行的行动可以减少住院医师培训项目的毕业生数量，同时保持甚至提高质量和平等性。然而，进一步审视表明，这些行动往往相互冲突，有时实际上并不理想，而且通常受到实施有效性和可行性问题的困扰。因此，即使法律有所变化，作者们也未找到应对可能出现的大量放射科医生供应过剩的现成解决方案。
