Traxler H
Workforce Analysis and Research Branch, United States Public Health Service, Rockville, MD, USA.
World Health Stat Q. 1994;47(3-4):118-25.
This article describes the major features and uses of the United States Public Health Services' Bureau of Health Professions' (BHPr) physician supply model. Within the space allowed, and referring the reader to the indicated references for further detail, a brief overview and history of the BHPr modelling program in general, and of the physician supply and requirements models in particular is provided. The physician supply model's major methodological features, data bases and recent policy applications are then elaborated. In this latter part, the reemerging importance of physician supply forecasting in the United States health care reform and policy debate is illuminated by examples from the recent journal literature and several major government and advisory council reports. Finally, some of the limitations and challenges for modelling physician supply in the 1990s are highlighted, as this nation likely faces the most fundamental restructuring of its health care system since the introduction of Medicare and Medicaid nearly 30 years ago.
本文介绍了美国公共卫生服务局卫生职业司（BHPr）医生供给模型的主要特点和用途。在篇幅允许的范围内，并请读者参考所引用的参考文献以获取更多细节，本文简要概述了BHPr建模项目的总体情况，尤其是医生供给与需求模型的情况及历史。接着阐述了医生供给模型的主要方法特点、数据库及近期的政策应用。在后半部分，通过近期期刊文献以及几份主要政府和咨询委员会报告中的实例，阐明了医生供给预测在美国医疗改革和政策辩论中重新凸显的重要性。最后，强调了20世纪90年代医生供给建模所面临的一些局限性和挑战，因为自近30年前引入医疗保险和医疗补助制度以来，美国可能正面临其医疗体系最根本的重组。
