Physician supply modelling in the United States of America and its uses in assisting policy making.

This article describes the major features and uses of the United States Public Health Services' Bureau of Health Professions' (BHPr) physician supply model. Within the space allowed, and referring the reader to the indicated references for further detail, a brief overview and history of the BHPr modelling program in general, and of the physician supply and requirements models in particular is provided. The physician supply model's major methodological features, data bases and recent policy applications are then elaborated. In this latter part, the reemerging importance of physician supply forecasting in the United States health care reform and policy debate is illuminated by examples from the recent journal literature and several major government and advisory council reports. Finally, some of the limitations and challenges for modelling physician supply in the 1990s are highlighted, as this nation likely faces the most fundamental restructuring of its health care system since the introduction of Medicare and Medicaid nearly 30 years ago.