Langley J D, Wagenaar A C, Begg D J
Injury Prevention Research Unit, University of Otago Medical School, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Accid Anal Prev. 1996 Mar;28(2):139-46. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(95)00040-2.
Young drivers have a disproportionately high risk of experiencing a road traffic crash. On 1 August 1987 a Graduated Driver's Licensing System (GDLS) was introduced in New Zealand. This system was designed to give young drivers (i.e. 15-24 years inclusive) experience in driving while being excluded from high risk driving situations. We sought to determine the impact of the GDLS on serious injury crashes. The source of the injury crash data was New Zealand's Health Information Services' national public hospital inpatient morbidity data files for the years 1979-1992 inclusive. We disaggregated the occupant data into three age groups 15-19 years, 20-24 years, and persons 25 years of age or older and compared their trends in injury. In order to determine whether the incidence of motor vehicle crashes was simply following trends in other injury events we also included two 15-19 year old non-traffic injury comparison groups. Using time series analyses we showed that the introduction of the GDLS was closely followed by substantial reductions in car crash injuries for all age groups, especially 15-19 year olds (23% reduction). After considering effects for older occupants we speculate that the effect is likely to be substantially less than 23%. An analysis of licensure data suggests that the reduction in crashes may, in large part, be attributable to an overall reduction in exposure.
年轻驾驶员遭遇道路交通事故的风险格外高。1987年8月1日，新西兰引入了分级驾照制度（GDLS）。该制度旨在让年轻驾驶员（即15至24岁，含15岁和24岁）在驾车时积累经验，同时避免其置身于高风险驾驶情形之中。我们试图确定分级驾照制度对严重受伤事故的影响。受伤事故数据来源于新西兰健康信息服务中心1979年至1992年（含1979年和1992年）的全国公立医院住院患者发病率数据文件。我们将驾乘人员数据细分为三个年龄组：15至19岁、20至24岁以及25岁及以上，并比较了他们的受伤趋势。为了确定机动车事故发生率是否仅仅遵循其他伤害事件的趋势，我们还纳入了两个15至19岁的非交通伤害对照组。通过时间序列分析，我们发现分级驾照制度实施后，所有年龄组的车祸受伤人数都大幅减少，尤其是15至19岁的人群（减少了23%）。在考虑了年龄较大驾乘人员的影响后，我们推测实际影响可能远低于23%。对驾照数据的分析表明，事故减少很大程度上可能归因于总体暴露量的减少。
