Duffield J S, Adams W H, Anderson M, Leitch A G
Respiratory Medicine Unit, Royal Infirmary Edinburgh NHS Trust, UK.
Thorax. 1996 Feb;51(2):140-2. doi: 10.1136/thx.51.2.140.
Since 1987 there has been an arrest in the previously established decline of tuberculosis notifications in Scotland. A study was undertaken to determine whether age contributed to this phenomenon.
Notifications of tuberculosis in Scotland were quantified by year and age group for the years 1981-92 from national statistics supplied by the Information and Statistics Division. Population data were obtained from the 1981 and 1991 national censuses.
Age group analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis notifications showed that, in the 0-14 age group, incidence (per 10(5) population) decreased from 7.4 in 1981 to 2.6 in 1987, rising by an estimated 12.6% per annum to 3.7 in 1992. In the 65+ age group incidence declined from 30.1 in 1981 to 17.3 in 1988, and rose by an estimated 4.1% per annum to 22.2 in 1992. In the age groups 15-44 and 45-64 a continuous decrease in notification rate was seen over the period of the study.
The plateauing of the incidence of tuberculosis in Scotland is associated with significant increases since 1987 of tuberculosis in the young and elderly. Contributions from ethnic minorities and those infected with HIV are negligible. An ageing population over the decade, with the highest tuberculosis rates seen in the older age group, may explain these findings.
自1987年以来，苏格兰此前结核病通报数量持续下降的趋势出现了停滞。开展了一项研究以确定年龄是否与这一现象有关。
根据信息与统计司提供的国家统计数据，对1981 - 1992年苏格兰各年份和年龄组的结核病通报情况进行量化。人口数据取自1981年和1991年的全国人口普查。
对肺结核通报的年龄组分析显示，在0 - 14岁年龄组，发病率（每10万人）从1981年的7.4降至1987年的2.6，随后以每年约12.6%的速度上升，到1992年达到3.7。在65岁及以上年龄组，发病率从1981年的30.1降至1988年的17.3，并以每年约4.1%的速度上升，到1992年达到22.2。在15 - 44岁和45 - 64岁年龄组，在研究期间通报率持续下降。
苏格兰结核病发病率的稳定与1987年以来年轻人和老年人结核病显著增加有关。少数民族和感染艾滋病毒者的影响可忽略不计。这十年人口老龄化，老年年龄组结核病发病率最高，可能解释了这些结果。
