Hansen P, Scuffham P A
Department of Economics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Aust J Public Health. 1995 Oct;19(5):450-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.1995.tb00409.x.
This paper examines the cost-effectiveness for primary school children (age 5-12 years), secondary school children (13-18 years) and adults (over 18 years) of the legislation enacted on 1 January 1994 requiring road-cyclists in New Zealand to wear helmets. The cost to cyclists not in possession of a helmet before they became compulsory of either obtaining one or quitting cycling was compared with the number of deaths and hospitalisations expected to be prevented over the average life of a helmet. Corresponding to Victorian and United States estimates of the efficacy of cycle helmets at preventing serious head injuries, the cost per life saved was $88 379 to $113 744 for primary school children, $694 013 to $817 874 for secondary school children, and $890 041 to $1 014 850 for adults (New Zealand dollars = approximately 0.95 Australian dollars). The cost per hospitalisation avoided was $3304 to $4252, $17 207 to $20 278, and $49 143 to $56 035 respectively. These estimates are extremely sensitive to the estimated efficacy of helmets at protecting cyclists. Mainly anecdotal evidence for New Zealand suggests that they are not to be very effective at preventing serious head injuries; future research into the change in injury patterns as a result of the helmet regulation would be valuable. Nonetheless, the ranking of the abovementioned estimates does not contradict the policy in some parts of the world requiring helmets for children and/or teenagers, but not adults.
本文研究了1994年1月1日新西兰颁布的一项立法对于小学生(5至12岁)、中学生(13至18岁)和成年人(18岁以上)的成本效益。该立法要求新西兰的自行车骑行者佩戴头盔。将在头盔成为强制要求之前未拥有头盔的骑行者获取头盔或停止骑行的成本,与在头盔的平均使用寿命内预计可预防的死亡和住院人数进行了比较。对应于维多利亚州和美国对自行车头盔预防严重头部受伤功效的估计,每挽救一条生命的成本,小学生为88379至113744新西兰元,中学生为694013至817874新西兰元,成人为890041至1014850新西兰元(1新西兰元约等于0.95澳元)。避免每次住院的成本分别为3304至4252新西兰元、17207至20278新西兰元以及49143至56035新西兰元。这些估计对头盔保护骑行者的功效估计极为敏感。新西兰的主要传闻证据表明,头盔在预防严重头部受伤方面并非非常有效;未来针对头盔规定导致的伤害模式变化进行研究将很有价值。尽管如此,上述估计的排序与世界上一些地区要求儿童和/或青少年佩戴头盔但不要求成年人佩戴头盔的政策并不矛盾。