Kesteloot H
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
Verh K Acad Geneeskd Belg. 1996;58(2):117-38; discussion 138-9.
There are important differences in the expectation of life between countries where infectious diseases were for the greater part eradicated and other countries. Whereas in Japan one man in the age class of 55 to 64 years dies, about three men of the same age die in Hungary and 3,7 men in the Russian Federation. The death rate is significantly lower in all countries for women than for men. A highly significant linear relation exists between the log mortality owing to all causes and age. The slope of this equation is considered as the expression of the ageing of a population, to which it is inversely proportional. This is explained by the fact that the human race possesses a maximal age that differs very little from one country to another. This can be proved mathematically. Significant relations exist as well between the slope as between the intercept of the equation of log mortality from all causes and of age, due to the consumption of saturated fat (the latter increases the mortality) or the proportions in the consumption of polyunsaturated and of saturated fat by different populations (P/S and U/S ratio's). There is also a very significant correlation between log total mortality for cancer and log age. After adjusting the intake of saturated fat, the differences of cancer-mortality between the countries are no longer significant in men and the significance decreases strongly in women. Our conclusion is that food is the most important determinant of life expectancy between and within the populations.
在大部分传染病已被根除的国家与其他国家之间,预期寿命存在重要差异。在日本,55至64岁年龄段的男性中,有一人死亡,而在匈牙利,同年龄段约有三人死亡,在俄罗斯联邦则有3.7人死亡。在所有国家,女性的死亡率都显著低于男性。所有原因导致的对数死亡率与年龄之间存在高度显著的线性关系。该方程的斜率被视为人口老龄化的一种表达,二者呈反比关系。这可以从人类拥有一个在各国之间差异很小的最大年龄这一事实得到解释,这一点可以通过数学证明。由于饱和脂肪的摄入量(后者会增加死亡率)或不同人群中多不饱和脂肪与饱和脂肪的消费比例(P/S和U/S比率),所有原因导致的对数死亡率方程的斜率以及截距之间也存在显著关系。癌症的对数总死亡率与对数年龄之间也存在非常显著的相关性。在调整饱和脂肪摄入量后,各国男性之间的癌症死亡率差异不再显著,女性的差异也大幅减小。我们的结论是,食物是不同人群之间以及人群内部预期寿命的最重要决定因素。