Curran P J, Harford T C, Muthén B O
Graduate School of Education, University of California, Los Angeles 90095-1521, USA.
J Stud Alcohol. 1996 Jul;57(4):410-8. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1996.57.410.
Random effects latent growth (LG) models were used to study the relation between changes in heavy alcohol use and changes in the frequency of bar patronage over a 3-year period. Previous research has identified a close link between alcohol use and bar patronage, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about possible temporal ordering. LG models are highlighted and compared with the more traditional but restricted cross-lagged models.
Three annual measures of heavy alcohol use and frequency of bar patronage were administered to a sample of 3071 adults (62% male) who participated in the National Longitudinal Study of Youch from 1982 to 1984. Background variables included age, gender, ethnicity and marital status.
Heavy alcohol use and bar patronage were characterized by negative longitudinal growth trajectories and there was significant individual variability in these changes over time. Changes in heavy alcohol use closely paralleled corresponding changes in bar patronage. Finally, the Time 1 measures of each construct were inversely predictive of subsequent changes over time in the second construct.
These findings suggest that heavy alcohol users tended to continue to patronize bars, and bar patronage tended to encourage continued heavy alcohol use. This relation was particularly strong for singles and males. Compared to more traditional cross-lagged models, LG modeling appears to be a much stronger analytic technique for studying growth over time. It is recommended that LG models be used for future studies of change in alcohol use over time.
采用随机效应潜在增长（LG）模型研究3年期间重度饮酒变化与光顾酒吧频率变化之间的关系。先前的研究已经确定了饮酒与光顾酒吧之间的密切联系，但这些横断面研究结果限制了对可能的时间顺序的推断。重点介绍了LG模型，并将其与更传统但受限的交叉滞后模型进行了比较。
对1982年至1984年参加全国青年纵向研究的3071名成年人（62%为男性）样本进行了三次年度重度饮酒量和光顾酒吧频率的测量。背景变量包括年龄、性别、种族和婚姻状况。
重度饮酒和光顾酒吧的特点是纵向增长轨迹呈负向，且这些变化随时间存在显著的个体差异。重度饮酒的变化与光顾酒吧的相应变化密切平行。最后，每个构念的时间1测量值反向预测了第二个构念随时间的后续变化。
这些发现表明，重度饮酒者倾向于继续光顾酒吧，而光顾酒吧倾向于鼓励持续重度饮酒。这种关系在单身者和男性中尤为明显。与更传统的交叉滞后模型相比，LG建模似乎是一种研究随时间增长的更强有力的分析技术。建议在未来关于饮酒随时间变化的研究中使用LG模型。
