Morrison B J, Coldman A J, Boyes D A, Anderson G H
Department of Health Care and Epidemiology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Br J Cancer. 1996 Sep;74(5):814-9. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1996.441.
Two cohorts of women born in 1914-18 and 1929-33 who participated in a cervical screening programme have been followed for over 40 years. Age-specific incidence rates of squamous carcinoma of the cervix by rank of smear and length of interval between smears are reported. The younger cohort, who had undergone more frequent screening, had lower rates of invasive disease. From these incidence rates, estimates of false-negative rates and regression rates for carcinoma in situ have been made. The false-negative rate was estimated to be about 15%. Regression seemed more frequent in younger than in older women. For the younger cohort it was estimated to be 72% and in the older 47%. A comparison of the rates of in situ carcinoma with those of invasive disease suggests that the screening of the younger cohort reduced the rate of invasive disease to at least one-half or one-third of what it would have been if screening had commenced later. Rates of disease appear less dependent on age than previously thought and are consistent with causation by an infective agent.
两组分别出生于1914 - 1918年和1929 - 1933年且参与了宫颈筛查项目的女性已被跟踪随访40多年。报告了按涂片等级和涂片间隔时间划分的宫颈鳞状细胞癌的年龄别发病率。较年轻的那组女性接受筛查的频率更高，其浸润性疾病的发病率较低。根据这些发病率，对原位癌的假阴性率和消退率进行了估计。假阴性率估计约为15%。消退现象在年轻女性中似乎比在年长女性中更常见。对于较年轻的那组女性，估计为72%，而在年长女性中为47%。原位癌发病率与浸润性疾病发病率的比较表明，对较年轻组女性的筛查将浸润性疾病的发病率降低至如果筛查开始得更晚时发病率的至少二分之一或三分之一。疾病发病率似乎不像之前认为的那样依赖年龄，并且与感染因子导致发病的情况相符。
