Harker P
Br Med J. 1977 Aug 20;2(6085):490-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.2.6085.490.
A three-year study of febrile convulsions in Oxford with comprehensive notification from general practice and hospitals showed a 3% risk for all children of suffering at least one febrile convulsion by the age of 5 years. Children were most at risk between 6 and 27 months, and febrile convulsions were most likely to be prolonged in children aged 9-15 months. The association between febrile convulsions and primary immunisations in the preceding 28 days was compared in case and control children, matched for age and sex. Results suggested that such association was a chance relationship with age. If association was direct, the febrile convulsion rates per 1000 immunisation doses were estimated as follows: diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus--0-09 per 1000; poliomyelitis--0-6 per 1000; and measles--0-9 per 1000. Hence if any of these vaccines had a secific causal relationship with febrile convulsions, these rates would probably have been much higher.
一项在牛津郡开展的为期三年的关于热性惊厥的研究,该研究全面收集了来自全科医疗和医院的报告,结果显示,所有儿童在5岁前至少发生一次热性惊厥的风险为3%。儿童在6至27个月时风险最高,9至15个月的儿童热性惊厥最有可能持续。对病例组和对照组儿童(按年龄和性别匹配)在前28天内的热性惊厥与初次免疫之间的关联进行了比较。结果表明,这种关联与年龄有关,是一种偶然关系。如果存在直接关联,每1000剂免疫接种的热性惊厥发生率估计如下:白喉、百日咳、破伤风疫苗——每1000剂0.09例;脊髓灰质炎疫苗——每1000剂0.6例;麻疹疫苗——每1000剂0.9例。因此,如果这些疫苗中的任何一种与热性惊厥有特定的因果关系,这些发生率可能会高得多。