Daly M B, Lerman C L, Ross E, Schwartz M D, Sands C B, Masny A
Fox Chase Cancer Center, Cheltenham, PA 19012, USA.
Breast Cancer Res Treat. 1996;41(1):59-70. doi: 10.1007/BF01807037.
The Gail model is being used increasingly to determine individual breast cancer risk and to tailor preventive health recommendations accordingly. Although widely known to the medical and biostatistical communities, the risk factors included in the model may not be salient to the women to whom the model is being applied. This study explored the relationship of the individual Gail model risk factors to perceived risk of breast cancer and prior breast cancer screening among women with a family history of breast cancer. Data from baseline interviews with 969 women found a striking disparity between the objective risk factors included in the model and the accuracy of perceived risk and screening behaviors of this population, particularly among women over the age of 50 years. Risk perception accuracy was unrelated to all of the Gail model risk factors for all age groups. Reported mammography adherence was only associated with having had a breast biopsy in both age groups. Breast self examination (BSE) practice was independent of all measured factors for both age groups. These findings support the need for further research to identify additional determinants of risk perception and motivators of screening behavior.
盖尔模型正越来越多地用于确定个体患乳腺癌的风险，并据此制定预防性健康建议。尽管该模型在医学和生物统计学领域广为人知，但模型中包含的风险因素对于应用该模型的女性来说可能并不显著。本研究探讨了个体盖尔模型风险因素与有乳腺癌家族史女性对乳腺癌的感知风险及既往乳腺癌筛查之间的关系。对969名女性进行基线访谈的数据发现，模型中包含的客观风险因素与该人群感知风险的准确性及筛查行为之间存在显著差异，尤其是在50岁以上的女性中。所有年龄组的风险感知准确性均与盖尔模型的所有风险因素无关。两个年龄组中，报告的乳房X光检查依从性仅与曾进行过乳房活检有关。两个年龄组的乳房自我检查（BSE）行为均独立于所有测量因素。这些发现支持了进一步研究以确定风险感知的其他决定因素和筛查行为动机的必要性。
