[Prediction of ijime (bullying)].

Questionnaires about Ijime (bullying) and Ijimerare (being bullied) were given to 261 junior high school students and their mothers from July to September in 1995. There were two types of questionnaires, one for the child, which inquired about his experiences of bullying other children and being bullied by other children during the last year, and the other for the mother which assessed the child's emotional and behavioral problems in the last year, was the Rutter Parental Questionnaire (R.P.Q.). These two questionnaires were filled in separately in order to avoid consultation between mother and child about their contents. Analysis of level of recognition of Ijime and Ijimerare by the mother showed a sensitivity level of Ijime and Ijimerare of 11.7% and 33.3%, respectively. The specificity on the part of the mother was 99.0% and 97.6% for Ijime and Ijimerare, respectively. While the specificity was sufficiently high for both phenomena, the sensitivity was low particularly for bullying other children. This underestimation may suggest the mother's psychological tendency to overlook the child's bullying of other children. A cross tabulation of the children's responses to "I bullied other children" and "I was bullied by other children" was made. A total of 254 cases were divided into the ijime group (n = 80) and the non-ijime group (n = 174), and the former was further divided into the aggressor (n = 37), the victim (n = 20) and the mixed group (n = 23). The average R.P.Q. scores of the victim and the mixed group were very similar at 7.4 and 7.1 points, respectively. Those of the aggressor and the non-ijime group were 4.6 and 3.8 points, respectively. A logistic regression analysis was performed and a predicted equation for probability of Ijime and Ijimerare was deduced. Using this logistic model, the specificity and the sensitivity were compared to those estimated by the mother. From this, it could be seen that, although the specificity was high in both estimations, the sensitivity estimated by this model was considerably better than that by the mother, especially in the prediction of Ijimerare which amounted to almost fifty percent accuracy. Because no information other than sex, school year, and the R.P.Q. scores (excluding enuresis and encopresis) are necessary, this model seems to possess convenience and a broad range of adaptability.