Schuman L J, Wolfe H, Sepulveda J
Med Care. 1977 Sep;15(9):738-49. doi: 10.1097/00005650-197709000-00002.
Current and future demands for emergency transportation services are estimated relative to actual and potential use by the population at risk. Correct and incorrect utilization are defined by matching levels of responses (MICU, BEA, Transfer Vehicle, Nonemergency Vehicle, Transport/Private Vehicle) to the level to severity (Life-threat, Urgent, Routine, Transfer, Dry Run). From these definitions and data available from emergency facilities, demand and need are calcualted. Multiple regression models are developed for estimating future demand. Data from a rural county is then used with the models to develop the predictive equations. In both cases, five significant variables explain over 90 per cent of the variation in number of calls for emergency transportation services.
根据处于危险中的人群的实际和潜在使用情况，对当前和未来的紧急运输服务需求进行了估算。通过将响应级别（重症监护病房转运、基本生命支持转运、转运车辆、非紧急车辆、运输/私家车）与严重程度级别（危及生命、紧急、常规、转运、演练）相匹配，来定义正确和不正确的使用情况。根据这些定义以及从紧急设施获得的数据，计算出需求和需要。开发了多元回归模型来估计未来需求。然后，将一个农村县的数据与这些模型一起用于建立预测方程。在这两种情况下，五个显著变量解释了紧急运输服务呼叫次数变化的90%以上。
