Kamenetzky R D, Shuman L J, Wolfe H
Oper Res. 1982 Nov-Dec;30(6):1148-67. doi: 10.1287/opre.30.6.1148.
Models estimating demand and need for emergency transportation services are developed. These models can provide reliable estimates which can be used for planning purposes, by complementing and/or substituting for historical data. The model estimating demand requires only four independent variables: population in the area, employment in the area, and two indicators of socioeconomic status which can be obtained from census data. The model can be used to estimate demand according to 4 operational categories and 11 clinical categories. The parameters of the model are calibrated with 1979 data from 82 ambulance services covering over 200 minor civil divisions in Southwestern Pennsylvania. This model was tested with data from another 55 minor civil divisions, also in Southwestern Pennsylvania, and it provided good estimates to total demand. The model to estimate need evolves from the demand model. It enables planners to estimate unmet need occurring in the region. The effect of emergency transportation service (ETS) provider characteristics on demand was also investigated. Statistical tests show that, for purposes of forecasting demand, when the sociodemographic factors are taken into account, provider characteristics are not significant.
开发了用于估计紧急运输服务需求和需求的模型。这些模型可以通过补充和/或替代历史数据来提供可靠的估计，用于规划目的。估计需求的模型只需要四个自变量：该地区的人口、该地区的就业情况以及两个可从人口普查数据中获得的社会经济地位指标。该模型可用于根据4个运营类别和11个临床类别来估计需求。该模型的参数使用1979年来自宾夕法尼亚州西南部82个救护车服务机构的数据进行校准，这些服务机构覆盖了200多个小民事分区。该模型用同样来自宾夕法尼亚州西南部的另外55个小民事分区的数据进行了测试，并且它对总需求提供了良好的估计。估计需求的模型是从需求模型演变而来的。它使规划者能够估计该地区未得到满足的需求。还研究了紧急运输服务（ETS）提供者特征对需求的影响。统计测试表明，为了预测需求，当考虑到社会人口因素时，提供者特征并不显著。
