Khan H T, Raeside R
Department of Mathematics, Napier University, Edinburgh, Scotland, U.K.
Soc Sci Med. 1997 Feb;44(3):279-89. doi: 10.1016/s0277-9536(96)00076-7.
This paper reports on a study which has been undertaken using data from the 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) to determine the significance of influences on the probability of birth in the year preceding the survey. In the survey a total of 11905 ever-married women of reproductive age were asked a battery of questions relating to fertility aspects of women. Variables selected in this study were grouped into demographic, socio-economic, cultural and decision-making variables. Findings from the study indicate that the mother's age, whether contraception has ever been used, the death of a child at any time, whether the woman has ever worked, religion, region of residence, and female independence are the important covariates for explaining recent fertility in Bangladesh. Models are developed for the probabilities of a woman giving birth in urban and rural areas, dependent on her demographic and socio-economic conditions. Also developed are models for contraceptive use in urban-rural Bangladesh. This modelling contributes to a better understanding of fertility changes in Bangladesh and the differentials between urban and rural fertility. It is indicated that a continued fertility decline is likely.
本文报告了一项研究，该研究利用1989年孟加拉国生育率调查（BFS）的数据，以确定对调查前一年生育概率产生影响的因素的重要性。在该调查中，总共向11905名曾婚育龄妇女询问了一系列与妇女生育方面相关的问题。本研究中选取的变量分为人口统计学变量、社会经济变量、文化变量和决策变量。研究结果表明，母亲的年龄、是否曾使用过避孕措施、孩子在任何时候的死亡情况、该妇女是否曾工作、宗教信仰、居住地区以及女性的独立性，是解释孟加拉国近期生育率的重要协变量。针对城市和农村地区女性的生育概率，根据其人口统计学和社会经济状况建立了模型。同时还建立了孟加拉国城乡地区避孕措施使用情况的模型。这种建模有助于更好地理解孟加拉国的生育率变化以及城乡生育率差异。研究表明，生育率可能会持续下降。
