Braver E R, Zador P L, Thum D, Mitter E L, Baum H M, Vilardo F J
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, VA 22201, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 1997 Jan;29(1):79-96. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(97)87008-x.
Studies of the crash experience of tractors pulling multiple trailers have reached different conclusions concerning the relationship of truck configuration to crash risk. A previous case-control study found a significant increase in crash risk for double-trailer trucks in the state of Washington. The present case-control study was done of tractor-trailers crashing on Indiana interstates during November 1989-March 1991. Controls were obtained for 25% of the crash sites and were all tractor-trailers passing the crash sites during a traffic observation session one to four weeks following a crash on the same day of the week for 30 minutes at the same time of day. Logistic regression identified day of week, time of day, urban/rural area, and specific highway as significant predictors of controls' truck configuration. This model was applied to the cases to estimate the expected number of double-trailer cases. For all crashes combined, no increased crash risk was observed for doubles (Standardized Crash Ratio (SCR) = 83). Doubles were significantly underinvolved in multiple-vehicle crashes (SCR = 74), crashes on dry roads (SCR = 61), and crashes on wet (other than snow, ice, or slush) roads (SCR = 54). Doubles were significantly overinvolved in crashes on roads with snow, ice, or slush (SCR = 153). Because truck configuration was highly associated with driver age and work operation attributes among trucks in crashes, the absence of control data on these potential confounders precluded definitive assessment of the intrinsic risk of multiple versus single-trailer vehicles.
关于牵引多节挂车的拖拉机碰撞事故经历的研究，在卡车配置与碰撞风险的关系方面得出了不同结论。之前的一项病例对照研究发现，华盛顿州双挂车卡车的碰撞风险显著增加。本病例对照研究针对1989年11月至1991年3月期间在印第安纳州高速公路上发生碰撞事故的拖挂车进行。在25%的碰撞事故现场获取了对照样本，这些对照样本均为在同一周的同一天、同一时间、在碰撞事故发生后的一至四周内、交通观察时段中经过碰撞事故现场的拖挂车，观察时长为30分钟。逻辑回归分析确定了星期几、一天中的时间、城市/农村地区以及特定高速公路是对照样本卡车配置的显著预测因素。该模型应用于这些案例，以估计双挂车案例的预期数量。对于所有合并的碰撞事故，未观察到双挂车的碰撞风险增加（标准化碰撞比率（SCR）=83）。双挂车在多车碰撞事故（SCR = 74）、干燥路面碰撞事故（SCR = 61）以及潮湿（非雪、冰或融雪）路面碰撞事故（SCR = 54）中的涉入程度显著较低。双挂车在有雪、冰或融雪的路面碰撞事故中的涉入程度显著较高（SCR = 153）。由于在碰撞事故中的卡车中，卡车配置与驾驶员年龄和工作操作属性高度相关，缺乏关于这些潜在混杂因素的对照数据，因此无法对多节挂车与单节挂车车辆的内在风险进行明确评估。
