Westoff C F, Ryder N B
Demography. 1977 Nov;14(4):431-53.
On the basis of data collected in the 1975 National Fertility Study (NFS) in which continuously married white women interviewed in the 1970 NFS were reinterviewed five years later, the aggregate and individual validity of reported fertility intentions is evaluated. The main finding about aggregate prediction is that 1970 intentions overestimated 1971-1975 fertility to the same extent as the conventional 1970 total fertility rate. The conclusion is that intentions suffer all of the same vulnerabilities as other period measures. At the individual level, the validity of intentions is considerable in comparison with most other indicators.
基于1975年全国生育力研究（NFS）收集的数据，其中对在1970年NFS中接受访谈的持续婚姻关系的白人女性在五年后进行了重新访谈，对所报告生育意愿的总体和个体有效性进行了评估。关于总体预测的主要发现是，1970年的意愿对1971 - 1975年生育力的高估程度与传统的1970年总生育率相同。结论是，意愿与其他时期指标存在所有相同的弱点。在个体层面，与大多数其他指标相比，意愿的有效性相当可观。
