Ballester-Díez F, Corella-Piquer D, Pérez-Hoyos S, Hervás-Hernandorena A, Merino-Egea C
Institut Valencià d'Estudis en Salut Pública (IVESP) Valencia, España.
Salud Publica Mex. 1997 Mar-Apr;39(2):95-101.
To study the seasonal variation in mortality for all causes, grouped according to age and sex, within the city of Valencia during the period 1976-1990 and its relationship with air temperature.
This is an ecological study using monthly global mortality and mean atmospheric temperature statistics for the city of Valencia, Spain between 1976 and 1990. The principal variable has turned out to be mortality for all causes. Mortality rates have been determined for specific age groups (0-4, 35-49, 50-64, 65-74 and > or = 75), as well as for both genders, within the city of Valencia for each of the 180-month period of investigation. Average monthly mortality data has been obtained and the percentage variation has been calculated. Graphical analysis has been used to examine the seasonal variation in mortality and in order to discern the nature of any relationship between atmospheric temperature and mortality. The regression line has been adjusted using the Loess method (smoothed regression motive, locally pondered). The association between mean temperature and mortality has calculated by means of multiple regression analysis controlling for trend, seasonality and period effect.
A clear seasonal pattern emerges with mortality peaking during the Winter months and dipping during the Summer and early Autumn. The increase in mortality seen during the month of January came to 27.7% of the total mortality for females and 19.5% of the total mortality for males. By age groups, this increase was greater in the 75-plus age group. Graphically, the relationship between temperature and mortality has a V-shape appearance, with a lower mortality level when the mean daily temperature for the month in question is approximately 23 degrees Celsius. Based on this relationship, two complementary.
研究1976 - 1990年期间瓦伦西亚市按年龄和性别分组的全因死亡率的季节变化及其与气温的关系。
这是一项生态学研究，使用了1976年至1990年西班牙瓦伦西亚市的月度总体死亡率和平均大气温度统计数据。主要变量为全因死亡率。已确定了特定年龄组（0 - 4岁、35 - 49岁、50 - 64岁、65 - 74岁以及≥75岁）以及两性在瓦伦西亚市180个月调查期内每个月的死亡率。获取了平均每月死亡率数据并计算了百分比变化。采用图形分析来研究死亡率的季节变化，并辨别大气温度与死亡率之间任何关系的性质。使用局部加权回归法（平滑回归动机，局部加权）调整回归线。通过控制趋势、季节性和时期效应的多元回归分析计算平均温度与死亡率之间的关联。
出现了明显的季节模式，死亡率在冬季月份达到峰值，在夏季和初秋下降。1月份死亡率的增加占女性总死亡率的27.7%，占男性总死亡率的19.5%。按年龄组划分，75岁及以上年龄组的这种增加更大。从图形上看，温度与死亡率之间的关系呈V形，当所讨论月份的日平均温度约为23摄氏度时，死亡率水平较低。基于这种关系，有两个互补的…… （原文此处似乎不完整）
