Metzger M H, Barberger-Gateau P, Dartigues J F, Letenneur L, Commenges D
INSERM U 330, Université de Bordeaux II.
Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 1997 Jun;45(3):203-13.
The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive factors over five years follow-up of institutionalization, relevant for starting interventions in the area of Gironde (South Western France). This study deals with a longitudinal study of community residents aged 65 years and older. Of the 2792 subjects initially included in the cohort in year 1988, 2493 were selected for this study, leading to the subjects whose type of housing was known at least once over the five year follow-up (1989-1993). The statistical analysis was made with a discrete Cox proportional hazard model. Of the 2493 subjects, 150 entered an institution during the five years of follow-up, leading to a cumulative incidence of 7.1%. In the multivariate analysis, the predictive factors found in this study were age, absence of phone in the house, living in home for the aged, cognitive decline evaluated with the Mini-Mental-Status-Examination (MMSE), dependency for one item of the Lawton's scale (Instrumental Activities of Daily Living or IADLs), namely the inability to do shopping, and limited social contact with the family. These different indicators are a basis for decision making to target home care services fitted to the needs of the area.
本研究的目的是调查在五年随访期间与入住养老院相关的预测因素，这些因素对于在法国西南部吉伦特省开展干预措施具有重要意义。本研究是一项针对65岁及以上社区居民的纵向研究。在1988年最初纳入队列的2792名受试者中，有2493名被选入本研究，这些受试者在五年随访期（1989 - 1993年）内至少有一次住房类型已知。采用离散Cox比例风险模型进行统计分析。在2493名受试者中，有150人在五年随访期内入住了养老院，累积发病率为7.1%。在多变量分析中，本研究发现的预测因素包括年龄、家中无电话、居住在养老院、通过简易精神状态检查表（MMSE）评估的认知能力下降、在洛顿量表（日常生活能力量表或IADLs）的一项指标上存在依赖，即无法购物，以及与家人的社交接触有限。这些不同的指标是制定针对该地区需求的居家护理服务决策的基础。
