Bleuer J P, Averkin Y I, Okeanov A E, Abelin T
WHO Collaborating Centre for Epidemiology of Radiation and Thyroid Disease, Dept. of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland.
Stem Cells. 1997;15 Suppl 2:251-4. doi: 10.1002/stem.5530150733.
Starting in 1990, an increasing number of children in regions adjacent to the site of the Chernobyl nuclear accident have been diagnosed as suffering from thyroid cancer. Using available data up to 1994, the geographical distribution, time and cohort trends, age distribution and other characteristics of this epidemic are reviewed. The results show that the geographical distribution is similar to that of iodine-131 after the nuclear accident. When looking at cohorts of children born in the same years, one can see that the incidence has been increasing steadily since 1990; deviations from this pattern might be explained by active case finding. A causal relationship with the Chernobyl accident appears the most likely interpretation of these results. Possible modifying factors should, however, be examined closely.
自1990年起，切尔诺贝利核事故发生地周边地区越来越多的儿童被诊断患有甲状腺癌。利用截至1994年的现有数据，对这一流行病的地理分布、时间和队列趋势、年龄分布及其他特征进行了综述。结果表明，地理分布与核事故后碘-131的分布相似。观察同年出生的儿童队列可以发现，自1990年以来发病率一直在稳步上升；这种模式的偏差可能是由于积极的病例发现所致。这些结果最有可能的解释是与切尔诺贝利事故存在因果关系。然而，对于可能的修正因素应进行仔细研究。
