Heidenreich W F, Kenigsberg J, Jacob P, Buglova E, Goulko G, Paretzke H G, Demidchik E P, Golovneva A
GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Institute for Radiation Protection, Neuherberg, Germany.
Radiat Res. 1999 May;151(5):617-25.
The rates of childhood thyroid cancer incidence observed in Belarus during the period 1986 to 1995 are described as a function of time after exposure, age at exposure, and sex. Conclusions are drawn for the excess absolute risk function. After a minimum latent period of about 3 years after exposure, this risk function has a linear increase with time for at least 6 years. After correction for the dependence of average doses on age, the radiation-induced absolute thyroid risk in Gomel is about a factor of 3 higher for children up to age 10 at exposure compared to older ones; this may be due in part to different case-collection quality. In addition, in the group up to 10 years at exposure, the thyroid of girls is more sensitive to radiation by a factor of about 1.5 than the thyroid of boys on an absolute scale. Risk estimates from external exposure are consistent with risk estimates from Gomel assuming that the increase in excess cases reaches a plateau soon.
本文描述了1986年至1995年期间白俄罗斯儿童甲状腺癌发病率与暴露后时间、暴露年龄和性别的函数关系。得出了超额绝对风险函数的结论。在暴露后约3年的最短潜伏期后，该风险函数至少在6年内随时间呈线性增加。在对平均剂量与年龄的依赖性进行校正后，与年龄较大的儿童相比，戈梅利地区暴露时年龄在10岁以下的儿童因辐射诱发的绝对甲状腺风险高出约3倍；这可能部分归因于不同的病例收集质量。此外，在暴露时年龄在10岁以下的组中，从绝对尺度来看，女孩的甲状腺对辐射的敏感度比男孩的甲状腺高约1.5倍。假设超额病例的增加很快达到平台期，外部暴露的风险估计与来自戈梅利的风险估计一致。
