Forchhammer M C, Stenseth N C, Post E, Langvatn R
Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Norway.
Proc Biol Sci. 1998 Feb 22;265(1393):341-50. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1998.0301.
We present a model on plant-deer climate interactions developed for improving our understanding of the temporal dynamics of deer abundance and, in particular, how intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (plants, climate) factors influence these dynamics. The model was tested statistically by analysing the dynamics of five Norwegian red deer populations between 1964 and 1993. Direct and delayed density-dependence significantly influenced the development of the populations: delayed density-dependence primarily operated through female density, whereas direct density-dependence acted through both female and male densities. Furthermore, population dynamics of Norwegian red deer were significantly affected by climate (as measured by the global weather phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO). Warm, snowy winters (high NAO) were associated with decreased deer abundance, whereas the delayed (two-year) effect of warm, snowy winters had a positive effect on deer abundance. Our analyses are argued to have profound implications for the general understanding of climate change and terrestrial ecosystem functioning.
我们提出了一个关于植物-鹿-气候相互作用的模型，旨在增进我们对鹿数量的时间动态变化的理解，特别是关于内在（密度依赖）和外在（植物、气候）因素如何影响这些动态变化。通过分析1964年至1993年间五个挪威马鹿种群的动态变化，对该模型进行了统计学检验。直接和延迟的密度依赖显著影响了种群的发展：延迟的密度依赖主要通过雌性密度起作用，而直接的密度依赖则通过雌性和雄性密度起作用。此外，挪威马鹿的种群动态受到气候的显著影响（以全球天气现象北大西洋涛动：NAO衡量）。温暖多雪的冬季（高NAO）与鹿数量减少相关，而温暖多雪冬季的延迟（两年）效应则对鹿数量有积极影响。我们的分析被认为对气候变化和陆地生态系统功能的总体理解具有深远意义。
