Petruckevitch A, Nicoll A, Johnson A M, Bennett D
Department of Sexually Transmitted Diseases, University College London Medical School.
Genitourin Med. 1997 Oct;73(5):348-54. doi: 10.1136/sti.73.5.348.
To estimate the number of prevalent HIV infections in England and Wales at the end of 1991 and 1993.
A direct method was used whereby population estimates derived from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyle (NATSAL) and prevalence data from the Unlinked Anonymous HIV Prevalence Monitoring Programme (UAPMP) were combined to produce estimates of the number of adults infected and alive in the population.
In the population of England and Wales the numbers of prevalent infections for defined transmission categories, at the end of 1993, were as follows: 12,600 through sex between men, 2500 through injecting drug use, and 6900 through heterosexual intercourse. The overall estimate was 22,800 HIV seropositive individuals.
The direct method attempts to provide an estimate of the number of HIV infections using population based survey data. These estimates are consistent with other approaches using independent methods. Such methods are essential for inferring recent HIV incidence, projecting future AIDS cases, and for healthcare planning.
估算1991年末和1993年末英格兰和威尔士的艾滋病毒感染流行人数。
采用直接法，即将来自全国性态度和生活方式调查（NATSAL）的人口估计数与无关联匿名艾滋病毒流行监测项目（UAPMP）的流行率数据相结合，以得出感染并存活于人群中的成年人数估计值。
在英格兰和威尔士人群中，1993年末特定传播类别中的流行感染人数如下：通过男性之间性行为感染的有12,600人，通过注射吸毒感染的有2,500人，通过异性性交感染的有6,900人。总体估计有22,800名艾滋病毒血清反应阳性者。
直接法试图利用基于人群的调查数据估算艾滋病毒感染人数。这些估计值与使用独立方法的其他途径一致。此类方法对于推断近期艾滋病毒发病率、预测未来艾滋病病例以及医疗保健规划至关重要。
