Hughes G, Porter K, Gill O N
PHLS AIDS Centre, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 1998 Aug;121(1):165-72. doi: 10.1017/s0950268898008760.
Two indirect methods were used to estimate the point prevalence of HIV infection in England and Wales at the end of 1993 using data on diagnosed HIV infections, AIDS cases, HIV-related deaths and HIV testing behaviour from unlinked anonymous surveys. The methods estimated the proportion of all prevalent HIV infections that diagnosed infections represented. Most of those exposed to HIV infection through injecting drug use or sexual intercourse between men had had their infections diagnosed compared to less than half of those exposed through heterosexual intercourse. The total estimated number of prevalent infections was 22,350 for the diagnosis interval method and 20,540 for the test history method, and about 56-57% of these were in homo/bisexual men. These indirect methods are cheap and simple applications of surveillance data which provide estimates that compare favourably with those produced by more complex methods.
采用两种间接方法，利用来自无关联匿名调查的已确诊艾滋病毒感染、艾滋病病例、与艾滋病毒相关的死亡以及艾滋病毒检测行为的数据，来估算1993年底英格兰和威尔士艾滋病毒感染的时点患病率。这些方法估算了已确诊感染在所有流行艾滋病毒感染中所占的比例。与通过异性性行为感染艾滋病毒的人中不到一半已确诊感染相比，大多数通过注射吸毒或男性之间的性行为接触艾滋病毒的人已确诊感染。诊断间隔法估算的流行感染总数为22350例，检测史法为20540例，其中约56 - 57%为男同性恋/双性恋男性。这些间接方法是对监测数据的廉价且简单的应用，所提供的估算结果与更复杂方法得出的结果相比具有优势。
