Marshall W A, Limongi Y
Ann Hum Biol. 1976 May;3(3):235-43. doi: 10.1080/03014467600001401.
The regression of age at menarche on the difference between bone age and chronological age was estimated using hand/wrist radiographs taken between the ages of 10 and 15 years of 352 British girls whose ages at menarche were known. The regression was used to determine, in the case of girls who had not yet menstruated at a given chronological age and bone age, (a) the most probable age at menarche, and (b) the age by which 95 per cent would have experienced menarche. The results were compared with predictions made on the basis of chronological age alone. The range of error of predictions based on chronological age only decreases as age increases. This is true also when bone age is taken into account but, at all ages, the error of prediction using bone age as well as chronological age was less than that of prediction based on chronological age alone.
利用352名初潮年龄已知的英国女孩在10至15岁之间拍摄的手部/腕部X光片，估算了初潮年龄与骨龄和实际年龄之差之间的回归关系。对于在给定实际年龄和骨龄时仍未月经初潮的女孩，该回归关系用于确定：（a）最可能的初潮年龄；（b）95%的女孩将会经历月经初潮的年龄。将结果与仅基于实际年龄所做的预测进行比较。仅基于实际年龄的预测误差范围随着年龄增长而减小。在考虑骨龄时也是如此，但在所有年龄段，同时使用骨龄和实际年龄的预测误差均小于仅基于实际年龄的预测误差。
