Wintemute G J, Wright M A, Parham C A, Drake C M, Beaumont J J
Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, USA.
Ann Emerg Med. 1998 Jul;32(1):44-50. doi: 10.1016/s0196-0644(98)70098-8.
We studied a population of young adults who legally purchased handguns to determine whether an association exists between the purchase of an assault-type handgun and prior or subsequent criminal activity.
We conducted a longitudinal study of 5,360 legally authorized purchasers of handguns in California in 1988 who were younger than 25 years at the time of purchase. Our main outcome measures were (1) adjusted relative risk (RR) for the purchase of an assault-type handgun for subjects with a criminal history compared with subjects without such a history and (2) adjusted RR for new criminal activity during the 3 years after handgun purchase for purchasers of assault-type handguns compared with purchasers of other handguns. RRs were adjusted for sex and race/ethnicity.
Handgun purchasers with a criminal history were more likely than those with no criminal history to purchase assault-type handguns (4.6% and 2.0%, respectively; RR = 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5 to 2.8). Among handgun purchasers who had a criminal history, purchasers of assault-type handguns were more likely than purchasers of other handguns to be charged with new offenses (RR = 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3 to 1.9), including offenses involving firearms of violence (RR = 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.20. Among those who had previously been charged with Violent Crime Index offenses (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), those who purchased assault-type handguns were more than twice as likely as purchasers of other handguns to be charged with a new offense (RR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) and three times as likely to be charged with a new offense involving firearms or violence (RR = 3.0, 95% CI, 1.9 to 4.6).
In this population, the purchase of an assault-type handgun was associated with both prior and subsequent criminal activity.
我们对一群合法购买手枪的年轻人进行了研究，以确定购买突击型手枪与之前或之后的犯罪活动之间是否存在关联。
我们对1988年加利福尼亚州5360名合法授权购买手枪的人进行了纵向研究，这些人在购买时年龄小于25岁。我们的主要结局指标为：（1）有犯罪史的受试者购买突击型手枪的调整相对风险（RR）与无犯罪史的受试者相比；（2）购买突击型手枪的人与购买其他手枪的人相比，在购买手枪后3年内新犯罪活动的调整RR。RR针对性别和种族/族裔进行了调整。
有犯罪史的手枪购买者比无犯罪史的购买者更有可能购买突击型手枪（分别为4.6%和2.0%；RR = 2.0；95%置信区间[CI] 1.5至2.8）。在有犯罪史的手枪购买者中，购买突击型手枪的人比购买其他手枪的人更有可能被指控犯新罪（RR = 1.5；95% CI，1.3至1.9），包括涉及暴力枪支的犯罪（RR = 1.7；95% CI，1.3至2.2）。在那些之前被指控犯有暴力犯罪指数罪行（谋杀、强奸、抢劫、严重攻击）的人中，购买突击型手枪的人被指控犯新罪的可能性是购买其他手枪的人的两倍多（RR = 2.3；95% CI，1.5至3.4），被指控犯涉及枪支或暴力的新罪的可能性是三倍（RR = 3.0，95% CI，1.9至4.6）。
在这群人中，购买突击型手枪与之前和之后的犯罪活动均有关联。
