Wintemute G J, Wright M A, Drake C M, Beaumont J J
Violence Prevention Research Program, UC Davis Medical Center, 2315 Stockton Blvd, Sacramento, CA 95817, USA.
JAMA. 2001 Feb 28;285(8):1019-26. doi: 10.1001/jama.285.8.1019.
Some states prohibit the purchase of handguns by persons convicted of selected misdemeanor crimes, but most do not. California has denied handgun purchases by violent misdemeanants since 1991; the effectiveness of these policies is unknown.
To determine the risk factors for new criminal activity among violent misdemeanants who seek to purchase handguns and whether denial of handgun purchase by violent misdemeanants affects their risk of arrest for new crimes, particularly gun and/or violent crimes.
Retrospective, population-based cohort study.
Persons aged 21 to 34 years who sought to purchase a handgun through a licensed dealer in California during 1989-1991 and who had at least 1 violent misdemeanor conviction in the preceding 10 years. The study cohorts consisted of 986 persons whose purchase applications were made in 1991 and were denied (denied persons) and 787 persons whose purchase applications were made in 1989-1990 and were approved (purchasers).
Incidence and relative risk of first arrest in California for new gun and/or violent crimes and for nongun, nonviolent crimes during a 3-year follow-up after actual or attempted handgun purchase.
During the 3-year follow-up, 546 (33.0%) of 1654 subjects with follow-up information were arrested for a new crime, including 296 (31.9%) of 927 denied persons and 250 (34.4%) of 727 purchasers. After adjusting for differences in age, sex, and prior criminal history, purchasers were more likely than denied persons to be arrested for new gun and/or violent crimes (relative hazard [RH], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.60), but not for nongun, nonviolent crimes (RH, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.78-1.19). In both groups, risk of arrest was strongly related to age and number of convictions accrued prior to actual or attempted handgun purchase.
Our results indicate that denial of handgun purchase to violent misdemeanants is associated with a specific decrease in risk of arrest for new gun and/or violent crimes.
一些州禁止被判定犯有特定轻罪的人购买手枪，但大多数州并非如此。自1991年以来，加利福尼亚州一直拒绝暴力轻罪者购买手枪；这些政策的效果尚不清楚。
确定试图购买手枪的暴力轻罪者再次犯罪的风险因素，以及拒绝暴力轻罪者购买手枪是否会影响他们因新罪行被捕的风险，特别是枪支和/或暴力犯罪。
基于人群的回顾性队列研究。
1989年至1991年期间在加利福尼亚州通过持牌经销商申请购买手枪且在过去10年中至少有1次暴力轻罪定罪的21至34岁的人。研究队列包括986名在1991年提出购买申请但被拒绝的人（被拒者）和787名在1989年至1990年提出购买申请并获得批准的人（购买者）。
在实际或试图购买手枪后的3年随访期间，加利福尼亚州因新的枪支和/或暴力犯罪以及非枪支、非暴力犯罪首次被捕的发生率和相对风险。
在3年随访期间，1654名有随访信息的受试者中有546人（33.0%）因新罪行被捕，其中927名被拒者中有296人（31.9%），727名购买者中有250人（34.4%）。在调整年龄、性别和既往犯罪史的差异后，购买者因新的枪支和/或暴力犯罪被捕的可能性高于被拒者（相对风险[RH]，1.29；95%置信区间[CI]，1.04 - 1.60），但因非枪支、非暴力犯罪被捕的可能性则不然（RH，0.96；95%CI，0.78 - 1.19）。在两组中，被捕风险都与年龄以及实际或试图购买手枪之前积累的定罪次数密切相关。
我们的结果表明，拒绝暴力轻罪者购买手枪与新的枪支和/或暴力犯罪被捕风险的特定降低有关。
