Kennedy B P, Kawachi I, Prothrow-Stith D, Lochner K, Gupta V
Division of Public Health Practice, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Soc Sci Med. 1998 Jul;47(1):7-17. doi: 10.1016/s0277-9536(98)00097-5.
Studies have shown that poverty and income are powerful predictors of homicide and violent crime. We hypothesized that the effect of the growing gap between the rich and poor is mediated through an undermining of social cohesion, or social capital, and that decreased social capital is in turn associated with increased firearm homicide and violent crime. Social capital was measured by the weighted responses to two items from the U.S. General Social Survey: the per capita density of membership in voluntary groups in each state; and the level of social trust, as gauged by the proportion of residents in each state who believed that "most people would take advantage of you if they got the chance". Age-standardized firearm homicide rates for the years 1987-1991 and firearm robbery and assault incidence rates for years 1991-1994 were obtained for each of the 50 U.S. states. Income inequality was strongly correlated with firearm violent crime (firearm homicide, r = 0.76) as well as the measures of social capital: per capita group membership (r = -0.40) and lack of social trust (r = 0.73). In turn, both social trust (firearm homicide, r = 0.83) and group membership (firearm homicide, r = -0.49) were associated with firearm violent crime. These relationships held when controlling for poverty and a proxy variable for access to firearms. The profound effects of income inequality and social capital, when controlling for other factors such as poverty and firearm availability, on firearm violent crime indicate that policies that address these broader, macro-social forces warrant serious consideration.
研究表明，贫困和收入是凶杀及暴力犯罪的有力预测因素。我们假设，贫富差距不断扩大的影响是通过破坏社会凝聚力或社会资本来介导的，而社会资本的减少反过来又与枪支凶杀和暴力犯罪的增加相关。社会资本通过对美国综合社会调查中两个项目的加权回答来衡量：每个州志愿团体成员的人均密度；以及社会信任程度，以每个州认为“大多数人有机会就会利用你”的居民比例来衡量。我们获取了美国50个州在1987 - 1991年的年龄标准化枪支凶杀率以及在1991 - 1994年的枪支抢劫和袭击发生率。收入不平等与枪支暴力犯罪（枪支凶杀，r = 0.76）以及社会资本的衡量指标密切相关：人均团体成员数（r = -0.40）和缺乏社会信任（r = 0.73）。反过来，社会信任（枪支凶杀，r = 0.83）和团体成员数（枪支凶杀，r = -0.49）都与枪支暴力犯罪相关。在控制了贫困和获取枪支的一个替代变量后，这些关系依然成立。在控制了贫困和枪支可获得性等其他因素后，收入不平等和社会资本对枪支暴力犯罪产生的深远影响表明，应对这些更广泛的宏观社会力量的政策值得认真考虑。
