Comparison of the cost-effectiveness of vaccines and insecticide impregnation of mosquito nets for the prevention of malaria.

The cost-effectiveness of two different methods of prevention of morbidity and mortality due to Plasmodium falciparum malaria, vaccination and impregnation of mosquito nets with permethrin, was compared. The analysis was performed with reference to the cohort of all children born in The Gambia in 1990 and protected for 5 years, using estimates of costs from studies in The Gambia. The vaccine was assumed to be given in three doses before the age of 6 months, through the Expanded Programme of Immunization, and to remain effective up to the age of 5 years. The bednets were assumed to be impregnated at 6-monthly intervals over the 5-year period. The expected number of deaths and attacks due to P. falciparum in the first 5 years of the 1990 cohort's lives were estimated from published literature. The numbers of deaths and attacks averted by the two strategies were then estimated by decision analysis, using the best estimates of effectiveness available in the literature. The vaccine strategy would have averted an estimated 743 deaths and 50,502 malaria attacks, whereas the net impregnation would have averted 1537 deaths and 69,415 attacks. The estimated cost per death averted was U.S. $252 for the vaccine and U.S. $711 for net impregnation. The estimated cost per P. falciparum attack averted was U.S. $3.71 for the vaccine and U.S. $15.75 for net impregnation. Sensitivity analysis, examining the effect of varying the vaccine cost or insecticide cost, the efficacy of the vaccine or net impregnation, and the percentage coverage of the population, confirmed the greater cost-effectiveness of the vaccine strategy for either of the outcomes examined under the conditions of the model. However, limitations on the absolute number of deaths and malaria attacks which can averted by currently available vaccines demonstrate that a vaccine of higher efficacy would be highly desirable.