[Predicting the number of patients on dialysis and renal transplant recipients in Denmark].

A Markov model was applied in three ways: 1) a deterministic model with fixed rates, 2) a stochastic model using simulated varying rates and 3) a deterministic model with increasing rates. With present rates an increase in the prevalence of renal transplant recipients < 60 years (from 1003 in 1995 to about 1465 in 2006) and the prevalence of haemodialysis patients less than or equal to 60 years (from 456 in 1995 to about 903 in 2006) was predicted. The prevalence in other treatment modalities would change less. The overall prevalence proportion would increase from 539 patients/mio. inhabitants in 1995 to about 777/mio. in 2006. Observed and expected numbers with the stochastic model in 1996 were: haemodialysis: 1053 (1074 +/- 41, 2p = 0.61), peritoneal dialysis: 456 (480 +/- 22, 2p = 0.28) and renal transplant recipients: 1232 (1266 +/- 14, 2p = 0.015). The deterministic model with increasing rates predicted an overall prevalence of 1162 patients/mio. in 2006.